Over at economist’s view, Oregon Professor Mark Thoma’s blog, there’s a discussion about whether the unemployment we have is run of the mill cyclical unemployment, or something more sinister: Structural unemployment.
The nation has lost almost 8 million jobs in total the past three years. During the same time frame 6 million adults entered the workforce. Thoma presents an argument from another economics professor, Brad DeLong, that what we have is cyclical, not structural.
DeLong cites the following statistics, which we find helpful.
“Well, over the past three years…
- employment in logging and mining has risen by 11 thousand
- employment in construction has fallen by 2.1 million
- employment in manufacturing has shrunk by 2.4 million
- employment in wholesale trade has fallen by 437 thousand
- employment in retail trade has fallen by 912 thousand
- employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 333 thousand
- employment in publishing, except internet is down by 147 thousand
- employment in motion picture and sound recording is down by 34 thousand
- employment in broadcasting, except internet is down by 41 thousand
- employment in telecommunications is down by 54 thousand
- employment in financial activities is down by 921 thousand
- employment in professional and business services is down by 1.3 million
- employment in educational services is up by 197 thousand
- employment in health care is up by 789 thousand
- employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 467 thousand
- employment in other services is down by 32 thousand
- employment by the federal government is down by 330 thousand
- employment by state and local governments is down by 127 thousand.”
While the stats are dispiriting, there doesn’t appear to be a total collapse in a few industries, and a corresponding (though smaller) surge in a few different industries that would indicate something structural is going on. Which is DeLong’s point.
Beezer is a little concerned these statistics may not yet be showing something that is structural and will become apparent going forward. What if the ‘structural’ adjustment that’s needed is crossing across almost all industries? What if a snapshot in time, which is what DeLong cites, doesn’t reveal an underlying correction?
What if the adjustments needed are so widespread that the job markets will be roiling for a decade as the fundamental adjustments are made, part by part, rather than in one easily identifiable wrench?
America faces challenges on multiple fronts right now. Manufacturing jobs and capacity have declined for more than 30 years. Multinational US corporations have built manufacturing facilities overseas rather than at home. At the same time, the domestic economy became more and more dominated by consumption and service related industries. Going into the current recession those industries constituted 70 percent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product.
Not coincidentally, the nation’s trade deficit expanded during this time as manufactured goods needed to be bought from foreign sources due to America’s dwindling capacity to make the goods for itself.
Maintenance and upgrading of vital public infrastructure has been almost completely ignored over the same time period. The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates the national backlog of work that needs doing during the next three years is $2.2 trillion.
And of course, during this 30 year period America’s dependence on fossil fuel energy became a public concern. From the OPEC embargo of the 1970s, to the recent spike, collapse and rebound of petroleum prices, American anxiety over this problem has only increased. No simple solution is apparent. The necessity of replacing fossil fuel energy is obvious, but how to do it is not.
When you take all these challenges together, it’s easy to believe the sum total equals structural change. It may come about by a series of cyclical upheavals but the end result will be structural.
And that will take time. There will likely be periods of relative prosperity, but they will be sandwiched by uneasy periods where unemployment will spike (a series of ‘cyclical’ challenges).
This transition would be be politically difficult even under the best of circumstances. But almost no one thinks the ‘best of circumstances’ is likely because the Democrats and the Republicans have embraced what appear to be mutually exclusive philosophies.
Republicans simply don’t think government action beyond basic defense and a few other necessary public services is warranted. Asking the government to help is simply wasting time and money, this philosophy maintains. If left unencumbered by taxes and regulation, private industry would naturally solve these issues, Republicans say.
Democrats, on the other hand, are not so trusting of unencumbered private industry. And they believe, as a result, that government needs to be part of the solution. Given the current recession and all its components, each side has blamed the other for the malaise.
One side fights government involvement. The other wants government help. So far the government has become more involved (it had to, the private forces rushed to the sidelines) but it’s been an uneasy involvement because neither side believes the government should run the economy.
As a Democrat, and a liberal, Beezer has little faith all these challenges can be met by the private sector alone. The federal government can be a forceful enabler of private economic expansion by putting its considerable weight to the wheels of commerce. Without that directed force, so-called free markets (an oxymoron in Beezer’s opinion), will steadily lose ground globally under the onslaught of state capitalism.
Our competitors have no illusions about how government power can lift private economic ships. The growth of their ‘national champions’ the past 10 years is astonishing. Yet the American government has been hobbled by Republican disbelief government can help in any real way.
Matters will probably get worse before the American public realizes the nation is losing a very large, complex battle against its economic rivals. What will happen when that realization finally sinks right down to the neighborhoods is anyone’s guess.
One can only hope Democracy can survive the inevitable reaction.