Who Will Win the NBA Rookie of the Year 2024? Top Candidates and Predictions

As I sit here watching the NBA preseason unfold, I can't help but feel that familiar excitement building about this year's rookie class. The 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year race is shaping up to be one of the most compelling in recent memory, and I've been tracking these young prospects since their college days. Having covered basketball for over a decade, I've developed a keen eye for spotting which rookies can translate their college success to the professional stage, and this year presents some fascinating storylines that remind me of how teams evolve in professional basketball. Just look at how NLEX maintained their winning momentum by defeating an injury-plagued Blackwater team 80-72 in their recent matchup - it shows how teams must adapt when facing challenges, much like these rookies will need to adjust to the NBA grind.

The conversation absolutely must begin with Victor Wembanyama, the French phenom who's been dominating headlines since he was sixteen. Standing at 7'4" with an 8-foot wingspan, his physical attributes alone make him a statistical anomaly that comes along maybe once in a generation. What truly impresses me about Wembanyama isn't just his shot-blocking prowess - he averaged 4.5 blocks per game in France last season - but his surprisingly polished offensive game for someone his size. He can handle the ball like a guard, shoot from deep with 38% accuracy from three-point range in the EuroLeague, and finish at the rim with either hand. The main concern I have is whether his slender frame can withstand the physical pounding of an 82-game NBA season, especially when he'll be facing grown men who weigh 50 pounds more than him. If he stays healthy though, and the Spurs utilize him properly, I believe he could put up numbers we haven't seen from a rookie since Blake Griffin's debut season.

Then there's Scoot Henderson, who feels almost like the forgotten man in this conversation despite being arguably the most NBA-ready prospect. Having watched him dominate in the G League for two seasons with the Ignite team, I'm convinced his game translates immediately to the professional level. His athleticism is absolutely explosive - he recorded a 42-inch vertical at the combine - and he possesses that rare combination of strength and speed that allows him to finish through contact while maintaining body control. What separates Henderson from other athletic guards in my assessment is his advanced playmaking vision; he averaged 6.8 assists against just 2.9 turnovers in the G League last season, impressive numbers for a 19-year-old playing against professionals. The main question mark in my mind is his outside shooting consistency - he shot just 31% from three last season - but everything else about his game screams future All-Star.

I've got to mention Brandon Miller, who might be the best pure scorer in this draft class. Having watched him extensively at Alabama, I was blown away by his scoring versatility - he can create his own shot off the dribble, catch and shoot with efficiency, and finish in transition. At 6'9" with a smooth shooting stroke, he reminds me of a young Paul George in terms of his offensive repertoire. Miller shot 42% from three-point territory in college last season on high volume, taking nearly eight attempts per game, which is exactly the kind of spacing the modern NBA prioritizes. My concern with Miller is whether he can handle the defensive assignments at the NBA level, as he sometimes struggled against quicker wings in college. But if he lands with a team that can hide him defensively while leveraging his shooting, I think he could surprise people and make a serious ROY push.

Now, here's where I might differ from some analysts - I believe Chet Holmgren deserves consideration despite missing all of last season with injury. Having watched his preseason performances closely, I see a player who's added significant muscle to his frame while maintaining his unique skill set. His defensive instincts are extraordinary for someone with his limited experience, and his ability to protect the rim while also switching onto perimeter players is exactly what modern NBA defenses covet. Offensively, he's shown improved footwork in the post and that same reliable three-point shot that made him special at Gonzaga, where he shot 39% from deep. The Thunder have been carefully managing his minutes in preseason, but when he's been on the court, Oklahoma City has outscored opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions according to the advanced stats I've been tracking.

What makes this race particularly fascinating to me is how team context will influence these players' statistics and ultimately the voting. Wembanyama will likely have the highest usage rate on a Spurs team that's rebuilding, which means he'll have every opportunity to put up big numbers. Henderson joins a Trail Blazers team that could feature him prominently if they decide to move Damian Lillard, giving him immediate responsibility. Miller could start immediately for a Hornets team desperate for wing scoring, while Holmgren joins a Thunder squad that's surprisingly competitive and might limit his statistical output in favor of winning basketball. In my experience covering these awards, voters tend to favor players on winning teams - about 70% of ROY winners since 2000 have come from teams with winning records - which could give Holmgren an edge if Oklahoma City makes noise in the Western Conference.

There are dark horses worth monitoring too - Amen Thompson's athleticism is otherworldly, and Jarace Walker could thrive in Indiana's system. But if you're asking me to make a prediction today, I'm leaning toward Wembanyama, provided he stays relatively healthy and plays at least 65 games. The narrative around him is simply too powerful to ignore, and his highlight-reel plays will capture voter attention throughout the season. I expect him to average around 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game, numbers that would make him only the third rookie in the last decade to reach those thresholds. Henderson will push him hard, and I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes the closest ROY vote since the 2011 race between Blake Griffin and John Wall. But for now, the advantage goes to the player with the highest ceiling and the most compelling case for transformational talent. The season can't start soon enough to see how this all plays out on the court.