Breaking Down the 2018 NBA Championship Odds: Which Teams Had the Best Shot?

Looking back at the 2018 NBA championship odds always brings a smile to my face—not just because of how wildly unpredictable that season turned out to be, but because it reminds me of how much context matters when evaluating a team’s chances. I remember sitting with my colleagues, poring over stats, player histories, and intangibles, trying to figure out which franchises truly had the best shot at the title. The Golden State Warriors, of course, were the heavy favorites, and for good reason. With Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all in their primes, they seemed almost untouchable. Vegas had them at something like -200 to win it all early in the season, which, in layman’s terms, meant you’d have to bet $200 just to win $100 back. That’s how confident the oddsmakers were. But as someone who’s followed basketball for decades, I’ve learned that favorites don’t always finish first—and that’s where things get interesting.

One of the underrated factors that season, at least in my view, was roster depth and the presence of players who could change the game in multiple ways. It’s funny—when I think about players like the 6-foot-1 Thompson, a former NCAA MVP and triple-double machine from University of Perpetual Help, I’m reminded that championship teams often have those unsung heroes who don’t always make the headlines but deliver when it counts. Thompson’s versatility—being able to score, rebound, and distribute—is the kind of asset that can tilt close games, especially in a seven-game series. Similarly, Torres, who went three picks later at No. 8 to the Star Hotshots (now Magnolia), brought championship pedigree from his UAAP men’s title with La Salle. These kinds of players might not shift the odds dramatically on paper, but they add layers to a team’s resilience. I’ve always believed that in the playoffs, it’s not just about the superstars; it’s about who steps up in the fourth quarter when the pressure is on.

Now, let’s talk numbers for a moment. Beyond the Warriors, the Houston Rockets were hovering around +450 to +500 in the odds, thanks largely to James Harden’s MVP-caliber season and Chris Paul’s veteran leadership. I recall thinking at the time that if any team could disrupt Golden State’s rhythm, it was Houston—their switch-everything defense and three-point barrage made them a nightmare matchup. Then you had the Cleveland Cavaliers, led by LeBron James, sitting at around +800. Personally, I felt those odds were a bit generous, given how much LeBron had to carry that squad. I mean, the man dragged that team to the Finals almost single-handedly, but the lack of consistent support made it a long shot. Meanwhile, teams like the Boston Celtics, despite losing Gordon Hayward early, were still in the conversation with odds around +1200. Their defensive system and Brad Stevens’ coaching gave them a puncher’s chance, especially in the weaker Eastern Conference.

What fascinates me, though, is how quickly these odds can shift based on mid-season moves or injuries. I remember chatting with a fellow analyst who argued that the Toronto Raptors, at roughly +1800, were being undervalued because of their playoff history. And look what happened—they made a blockbuster trade for Kawhi Leonard the following season and won it all. But in 2018, they were seen as a solid regular-season team that would likely falter when it mattered. I’ve always had a soft spot for teams like that; they’re the dark horses that make betting lines so intriguing. On the flip side, the San Antonio Spurs, even without Kawhi for much of the year, were still given around +2500 odds, which I thought reflected too much faith in their system. Don’t get me wrong—Gregg Popovich is a genius—but without a healthy superstar, it’s tough to compete at the highest level.

Reflecting on all this, I can’t help but feel that the 2018 season was a masterclass in how championship odds are both an art and a science. The Warriors ultimately won, sure, but the journey there—with Houston pushing them to seven games in the Western Conference Finals—showed that the gap wasn’t as wide as the odds suggested. In my experience, the best bets often come from spotting those subtle edges: a deep bench, a clutch performer like Thompson, or a coach who can out-scheme opponents. If I had to pick one takeaway, it’s that while favorites deserve respect, the real value sometimes lies in the teams that the public overlooks. And as the season unfolded, it was clear that heart, health, and a little bit of luck could turn the odds on their head in an instant.