Can Arizona State Sun Devils Basketball Finally Break Through This Season?
As I sit here watching the Arizona State Sun Devils basketball team prepare for what could be their most promising season in recent memory, I can't help but reflect on how this program reminds me of some of the great underdog stories in sports history. Having followed college basketball for over two decades, I've seen countless teams try to break through that invisible ceiling that separates good programs from great ones. The Sun Devils have been knocking on that door for what feels like an eternity now, and this season presents what might be their best opportunity yet to finally make that leap.
The comparison that immediately comes to my mind is to the boxing world, where breakthrough moments define careers. I remember discussing this very phenomenon with Randy Gordon, the former New York State athletic commissioner and former editor of The Ring magazine, during a Sirius XM Radio interview a few years back. He made an interesting point about how fighters - and by extension, sports teams - often need to overcome mental barriers more than physical ones. The Sun Devils have shown flashes of brilliance over the past three seasons, posting records of 20-11, 22-11, and 23-10, but they've consistently fallen short in crucial moments. There's a psychological component to breaking through that I believe this current roster is better equipped to handle than previous iterations.
What strikes me most about this year's team is the perfect storm of returning experience and incoming talent. Marcus Bagley's decision to return for his junior season rather than test the NBA waters gives them a legitimate star who averaged 18.3 points and 7.1 rebounds last year. Combine that with the development of point guard Frankie Collins, who improved his assist-to-turnover ratio from 1.8 to 2.4 last season, and you have the foundation for something special. I've watched Collins grow over his two seasons in Tempe, and his transformation from a raw talent to a floor general has been remarkable to witness firsthand.
The scheduling department has done them no favors though, and this is where I draw another parallel to the sports executives I've observed throughout my career. Former HBO sports executive Ross Greenburg used to talk about how championship-caliber teams need to be battle-tested, and my goodness, the Sun Devils will certainly be that. Their non-conference schedule includes matchups against at least four preseason top-25 teams, including what should be an absolute thriller against Creighton on December 10th. Then they jump into what I consider the toughest conference in college basketball - the Pac-12 - where they'll face UCLA, Arizona, and USC, all projected to be top-15 teams. It's a brutal path, but as Greenburg would argue, it's precisely what prepares teams for March.
Where I differ from some analysts is in my belief that this team's depth is being underestimated. Last season, their bench contributed approximately 28.7 points per game, which ranked in the top third nationally. With the addition of transfer forward Bryant Selebangue from Tulsa, who put up 12.4 points and 9.3 rebounds against American Athletic Conference competition, they've added legitimate frontcourt depth that was sorely missing during their late-season collapse last year. I watched Selebangue in person during his sophomore season, and his motor is something that doesn't show up fully in the stat sheet - he's the kind of player who can change games with energy alone.
The defensive improvements under coach Bobby Hurley have been gradual but significant. Last season, they held opponents to 41.2% shooting from the field, their best mark since the 2018-19 campaign. What impressed me most during my visit to their practices was the emphasis on defensive communication - something Hurley has clearly prioritized after last year's team occasionally looked disconnected on that end of the floor. They're implementing more switching schemes and showing better help-side awareness, which should translate to more transition opportunities - where this team truly excels.
I do have concerns about their three-point consistency though, and this is where my analyst hat comes on. Last season, they shot just 33.8% from beyond the arc, which placed them in the bottom half of Division I. For this team to truly break through, they'll need to improve that number to at least 36-37%, in my estimation. The good news is that incoming freshman guard Braelon Green was a 39% three-point shooter in high school, and he could provide the spacing they desperately need when defenses collapse on Bagley in the post.
The mental aspect of breaking through cannot be overstated, and this brings me back to that conversation about Colombian middleweight champion Rodrigo Valdez that Gordon referenced. Valdez had to overcome numerous setbacks before finally capturing his championship, and there's a similar resilience building within this Sun Devils program. They've experienced heartbreak - none more painful than last season's first-round NCAA tournament exit to TCU - but those experiences either break you or make you stronger. From what I've observed, this group has used that disappointment as fuel rather than allowing it to define them.
My prediction? This is the year Arizona State finally breaks through and reaches the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 1995. They have the talent, the schedule to prepare them, and perhaps most importantly, the collective mindset needed to overcome past disappointments. It won't be easy - the Pac-12 is absolutely loaded this year - but there's a different feeling around this program than in previous seasons. The pieces are there for a special campaign, and as someone who's watched this program closely for years, I believe we're about to witness something memorable in Tempe. The breakthrough that Sun Devils fans have been waiting for is closer than ever, and this team has the potential to not just meet expectations, but to surpass them in ways that could reshape the program's trajectory for years to come.