Can Blackwater Upset Phoenix in This PBA Live Game? Expert Predictions

I remember watching that post-game interview where Blackwater’s veteran guard was reflecting on a recent standout performance, and he said something that stuck with me: "I thought I was just sitting there. It was one of those days where your wheels are turning. And I said, man, I should be in the NBA." That moment of self-belief, that spark of ambition, is exactly what makes matchups like the upcoming PBA live game between Blackwater and Phoenix so compelling. On paper, Phoenix should dominate—they’ve got depth, momentum, and a system that’s clicking. But basketball isn’t played on paper. As someone who’s followed the PBA for over a decade, I’ve learned to never underestimate a team that’s playing with something to prove, and Blackwater, right now, fits that description perfectly.

Let’s break it down. Phoenix finished the elimination round with a solid 8-3 record, ranking second in team efficiency with an average of 104.2 points per game. Their ball movement is crisp, they’ve got reliable three-point shooters hitting at around 36% from beyond the arc, and their defense forces about 14 turnovers per game. On the other hand, Blackwater struggled through much of the conference, ending with a 4-7 slate. But here’s the thing—their last two games showed a different energy. They pushed TNT to the brink in a 95-92 overtime loss, and then they stunned Ginebra with a 101-94 upset win. That kind of momentum shift can’t be ignored. I’ve always believed that confidence is contagious, and when a player like their veteran leader starts believing he belongs at the highest level, it spreads through the whole roster.

From a tactical standpoint, Phoenix will likely rely on their balanced attack. Matthew Wright is averaging 18.5 points and 5.2 assists, and Jason Perkins has been a beast on the boards, pulling down roughly 9.1 rebounds per contest. They play at a faster pace, which usually works in their favor. But Blackwater has shown they can disrupt rhythm. In their last head-to-head, Phoenix won by just five points, 98-93, and Blackwater’s defense forced 17 turnovers. If they can replicate that pressure—especially on the perimeter—they’ve got a shot. Personally, I’ve always admired teams that win with grit rather than pure firepower. It reminds me of the 2016 Finals when Rain or Shine, despite being undersized, outworked everyone. Blackwater has that same underdog potential.

Of course, Phoenix isn’t going to roll over. Their coach is one of the best in the league at making halftime adjustments, and they’ve won 75% of their games when leading after the first quarter. But I’ve noticed Blackwater’s recent lineups have been more experimental—giving younger players meaningful minutes, which could throw Phoenix off. Rookie sensation Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser, for instance, put up 16 points and 8 rebounds in their last outing. Sometimes, unpredictability is an advantage. I remember talking to a former PBA player who told me that on any given night, one inspired performance can tilt the scales. That’s what makes me lean slightly toward Blackwater pulling off an upset here.

Still, let’s be realistic. Phoenix has the experience and consistency. They’ve made the playoffs in three consecutive conferences and have a deeper bench. But basketball isn’t always about logic. It’s about moments—like that player sitting on the bench, thinking he should be in the NBA, then going out and proving it. If Blackwater can harness that energy, if they can turn doubt into determination, we might be in for a classic. My prediction? I’ll go out on a limb and say Blackwater edges it, 96-94, in a nail-biter. Because in the PBA, as in life, sometimes the biggest surprises come from those who are tired of being overlooked.