Who Will Dominate the NBA All Star Three Point Contest This Year?

As I sit here watching the latest NBA highlights, I can't help but get excited about the upcoming All-Star weekend, particularly the Three-Point Contest. This year's competition feels particularly wide open, and I've been analyzing potential contenders with the same intensity I used to study game tape back in my coaching days. The three-point shot has completely transformed modern basketball - what was once a novelty has become the cornerstone of championship offenses. I remember when players like Larry Bird and Craig Hodges dominated this event, but today's shooters operate on a completely different level of consistency and difficulty.

When I look at this year's potential field, several names immediately come to mind. Stephen Curry, despite his veteran status, continues to defy physics with his shooting range. Just last week, he went 8-for-12 from beyond the arc against the Celtics, and his ability to create shooting space from anywhere on the court gives him a distinct advantage in this format. Then there's Desmond Bane, who's shooting a ridiculous 44.3% from three this season. What impresses me most about Bane is his footwork - he doesn't need much time or space to get his shot off, which is crucial in the timed format of the contest. I've personally watched him in warmups, and his routine is so mechanical it's almost robotic - every motion identical to the last.

The younger generation brings an exciting wildcard element to this year's competition. Players like Tyrese Haliburton have developed into legitimate threats from deep, and his quick release could serve him well under the bright lights. But here's where my perspective might surprise you - I'm keeping my eye on some of the less-heralded shooters who thrive in high-pressure situations. This reminds me of Sumayah Sugapong's performance where she finished with 11 points and four rebounds, but fouled out with three minutes to play. While those numbers might not jump off the page, what impressed me was her shooting form under duress. Before fouling out, she demonstrated remarkable composure from beyond the arc, and that kind of mental toughness often separates contenders from champions in these specialty events.

Statistics only tell part of the story, but they're a great starting point for analysis. Through January 15th, the league-wide three-point percentage sits at 36.4%, which is actually up from last season's 35.8%. What's more telling is the volume - teams are attempting 34.7 threes per game compared to just 24.1 a decade ago. This contextualizes why the Three-Point Contest has evolved from a sideshow to must-see television. The participants aren't just specialists anymore - they're often the best players on their respective teams. I recall a conversation I had with Ray Allen about the mental aspect of shooting competitions, and he emphasized that the physical mechanics become secondary to psychological preparation at the elite level.

My personal dark horse pick for this year is Minnesota's Anthony Edwards. While he's not typically mentioned among the league's elite shooters, his improvement has been dramatic - from 32.9% as a rookie to 38.7% this season. More importantly, he possesses that undeniable swagger that seems to elevate performance in these showcase events. I've noticed that the most successful three-point contestants share a certain rhythm and flow to their shooting motion that transcends pure technique. It's almost musical in its cadence - the catch, the dip, the release all blending into one fluid motion. Klay Thompson, who holds the contest record of 27 points, exemplifies this perfectly - when he's in rhythm, each shot seems to feed off the previous one.

The format itself presents unique challenges that favor certain types of shooters. Having attended three of these contests in person, I can tell you that the atmosphere is completely different from a regular game. The crowd's energy builds with each make, creating a wave of momentum that can either carry a shooter to victory or overwhelm them entirely. The strategic placement of the money balls, worth two points each, adds a layer of gamesmanship that casual viewers might miss. I've seen countless contestants alter their shooting patterns to maximize these high-value balls, sometimes to their detriment. The best approach, in my observation, is to maintain consistency across all racks while saving a bit of extra focus for that crucial final rack where the pressure peaks.

What many fans don't realize is how much preparation goes into these few minutes of competition. The top contenders typically begin specific training regimens weeks in advance, simulating the contest format with customized drills. I spoke with one Eastern Conference shooting coach who revealed that his player had taken over 800 contest-simulation shots in the month leading up to last year's event. That level of dedicated practice creates muscle memory that can withstand the unique pressures of the spotlight. It's not just about making shots - it's about making them efficiently within the 70-second time limit while managing energy and maintaining focus through the inevitable misses.

Looking at the historical data, winners typically shoot between 22 and 28 points in the final round, with the average winning score being 24.3 points over the past five years. The contest has evolved significantly since its inception in 1986, with the addition of the two "mountain" balls worth three points each creating new strategic considerations. Personally, I'd love to see the NBA experiment with even more radical format changes - perhaps incorporating movement or adding a deeper four-point line to really test these shooters' limits. The league has been surprisingly conservative with this event compared to the dunk contest, which has seen numerous format overhauls.

As we approach All-Star weekend, my prediction leans toward the veterans who have proven they can handle this unique challenge. Stephen Curry's combination of experience, technique, and competitive fire makes him my slight favorite, though I wouldn't be surprised to see a first-time winner emerge from the pack. The beauty of this event lies in its unpredictability - on any given night, with the right rhythm and a few friendly bounces, any of these elite shooters can get hot and put on a show for the ages. Whatever happens, I'll be watching with the same childlike excitement that first drew me to this game, marveling at these artists who have turned shot-making into performance art.